Over the past month, I have stayed relatively quiet on the US–Israel war with Iran, really for no other reason other than the fact that I was, and remain, relatively pessimistic about the whole thing — the intentions going into it, the lobbying from the Israeli government, the fear of more death, dire, and destruction. And yet, one month later, I think it's safe to say I feel slightly different about the whole thing.
Am I still pessimistic? Well, yes, of course. Am I taken aback, though, by the sheer strength and genius use of leverage by the Iranians? Surprisingly so, actually.
During the Twelve-Day War last June, I remember writing that it would be nothing short of nonsensical for Iran to attempt to go toe-to-toe with the US, and, for that, I'll hold my hands up — I truly underestimated the extent of Iran’s power on the world stage.
I mean, just get this: the Israelis finally force the Americans' hand into a conflict nobody in their right mind wanted, leading the Americans to sporadically, at the last minute, whip up a plan to 'denuclearise', among other things, the Iranian state, and finally leave the only incompliant superpower in the Middle East defenceless, and perhaps even forced into a regime change through mass rebellion and protest. I mean, that would be the cherry on top, right?
But as I'm sure we're all well aware by now, you can't really bomb your way into a regime change, now can you? I'm pretty sure we tried to do that not too long ago, but I could be wrong.
All jokes aside, though, the US had five main military objectives going into this conflict, and as of today, 44 days in, the US hasn't even achieved one of these objectives, never mind regime change.
So What Exactly Are the US's Military Objectives?
Above all else, the US seeks to denuclearise Iran and put an end to its 'nuclear weapons programme' (even though Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said in Congress last March, during the Annual Threat Assessment, that Iran had not reconstituted their nuclear weapons programme since at least the early 2000s).
They also seek the forfeiture of Iran's highly enriched uranium, as well as an agreement to no longer enrich uranium above the civilian-use threshold of 3.67 per cent, instead of the 60 per cent the US claims Iran enriches to.
The US’s third goal is to end Iran's ballistic missile programme, as well as the forfeiture of its current stockpile (including both its intercontinental ballistic missiles and even its short-range, less effective, ballistic missiles).
This, I might add, would render Iran effectively defenceless in a potential conflict with Israel again in the future — but I guess that's the point, isn't it?
Nevertheless, other than regime change, the US's final goal was to restrict Iran's support for its regional ‘proxies’ (Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the West Bank, and the Popular Mobilisation Force in Iraq).
I mean, it doesn't take a genius to realise that the US has massively fallen by the wayside in its objectives throughout this conflict. But while the Americans were unwittingly and rather absent-mindedly blowing who knows what up in Iran, a new mode of leverage seemingly emerged for the Iranians — one that has proven to be quite beneficial to Iran during, and perhaps even outside, this conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow, small-sized waterway and transport channel situated between the Persian Gulf, to the south of Iran, and the Gulf of Oman.
Don't let its small size fool you, though. Nearly a quarter of the world's entire energy supply flows through this narrow passageway — including oil, liquefied natural gas, liquid nitrogen, fertiliser, and more. In other words, we, the world, very much depend on this waterway for all of our various day-to-day needs and necessities.
Before the war, ownership of this channel was relatively unclear. Yes, it was clear that both Iran and Oman had large stakes in both the control and governance of the strait, but outright ownership wasn't so definitive.
That was until the war started, however, when Iran, just a few days in, quite abruptly seized control of the strait, deploying hundreds of mines into the sea, and covering every square inch of the sky with low-cost, easy-to-manufacture Shahed drones.
This created a blockade of over 200 oil tankers and cargo ships — many of them American — waiting to get out, but unable to make the journey due to the fear they might get hit, meaning the cargo would escape and sink to the bottom of the Persian Gulf. This also led the cargo insurers to back out, meaning all goods were now uninsured and therefore unrecoverable if a strike did occur.
In plain English, it was a complete disaster! Cheaply made $20,000 Shahed drones were being intercepted by $4 million Patriot missiles. US tankers were essentially plunged into a stalemate, parked west of the strait for weeks. The US actors were now hellbent on opening up a strait that was, ironically, open before the war even started, adding yet another objective to what was already quite a long list.
In fact, a disaster is putting it lightly — The US had lost. While Israel was focused on more land acquisition, this time in Southern Lebanon, US President Donald Trump was raging on Truth Social, ordering the Iranians to "Open the Fuckin' Strait" (they didn't), while jokingly sending praise to Allah ﷻ (if only they knew).
In the court of public opinion, the US hadn't just lost, but a ‘once-great power’ was now seemingly holding on for dear life, and perhaps a new, not-so-great power was now here to fill its place.
I mean, that’s really the question, isn’t it? Is the once-great power now finally wearing thin? Are the US’s best days now behind it? Personally, I'm not too sure. But I do think it’s true to say that a whole new power has now seemingly emerged. For better or for worse, I think it may be time we say hello to a new world superpower: Iran.
Jazak Allah khair for your time and attention throughout!
Faithfully, STN.
